Triple Talaq bill : From a Win Win congress went to lose lose situation.
Congress had a perfect plan to please both its Muslim constituency and soft Hindutva supporters. But its lame duck media management let the BJP and asad Owaisi run away with the agenda!!
Figure this : In Loksabha the BJP has a remarkable majority. It couldn’t have been stopped, instead Congress could have faced a Shah Bano type hostility among hindus, which is why Congress worked silently to expose the legal issues with Bill in Lok Sabha with help of allies and Women MPs and later stall the bill in rajya sabha using its numbers and legal loopholes ..
It was a perfect strategy as far as congress was concerned, it would have scored a very important political victory, as in Loksabha the opposition and third front wouldn’t have joined congress because there is no hope of defeating bjp, but in rajya sabha as bjp lacks majority, all the opposition and non NDA/UPA parties would join together to force a subdued Bjp to halt the bill… But alas, for Congress’s bad luck, Asad Owaisis performance in the Loksabha and silence of its MPs have in fact caused major problem in Congress’s Muslim belt..
So unless Rajya Sabha passes the bill, it’s hard to say that congress has betrayed Muslims, for all we know.. It would still be able to send the bill to a select committee and stop the passing of the Bill.But in doing So its risks its other constituency of Soft Hindutva vote bank. so from a Win Win congress went to lose lose. Will it salvage itself in Rajya Sabha.
Rajyasabha Numbers game: The Ball is in Congress’s Court!! any shady theatrics will result in loss of Karnataka and Congress Mukt Bharat.
as i wrote earlier In LokSabaha Most of The parties didnt vote or Speak because BJP has the brute majority (282,) NDA as 335 (2/3 Majority) .
Where as the Situation is Different In rajya Sabha, BJP has no Majority (82-NDA) .
Now in Rajya Sabha BJP and Congress Stand equal at 57 Seats .To get the Bill passed into a Law, the BJP needs to Cross 123 votes, which is why it wanted to bring the bill on friday when attendance is less especially the South Indian and Bengali MPs leave to their homes. This Trick by BJP would have cost opposition some 30 votes and the campaign would have ended before beginning.
So Now BJP has 77+4i+4N=85 , UPA has 68+1i+3n=72 Votes. While 3rd Front has 74, (( AIADMK, BJD, Samajwadi ,Communists, TMC, NCP ,BSP ))
The Final Equation is 85-72-74 . BJP will try to Push the bill with help of AIADMK and BJP etc but they already have rejected the Bill.. So It will all come to Congress whether it will allow the Bill to Pass ,or will allow a defanged (toothless) Bill with no real impact to pass, or Send the Bill altogether to the Select Committee and let it die!! the Ball is in Congress Court!! Muslim India Will be watching , very Carefully, any Theatrics by Congress and it will lose a Substantial amount of Muslim Votes in Karnataka. Already the damage caused is immense, Asad Owaisi have emerged as a Undisputed Champion and the anger he will create will be tapped into by SDPI which has a Strong Cadre base. only a 2-3 % swing would damage congress in atleast 30 seats.
Sp Now, Its all upto Congress , Will it stall the Bill and become hero , or will it fail and fall from eyes of Muslims (again) is the question to be seen.!!!
Note: JDU has a Muslim MP likely to vote against the bill or Abstain. 5 Nominated MPs are UPA nominees , 3 Likely to go with Congress, while 7 are BJP nominees 4 are members , in independents all but 2 are Bjp aligned.